“STUDY THE WAR OR PAY FOR IT”: RAUFU SAYS UKRAINE, IRAN-AMERICA/Is real CONFLICTS MUST REWRITE NIGERIA’S SECURITY PLAYBOOK
GREATRIBUNETVMEWS –warnsSecurity analyst Prof Abiodun Raufu that two global conflicts are exposing how wars will be fought next — and Nigeria’s military must adapt fast or risk being outpaced by insurgents and non-state actors.
The old war manual is dead. Nigeria’s generals need a new one.
Bottom Line:
For Prof Abiodun Raufu, the message is clear: drones over tanks, adaptability over bulk. Nigeria must fuse lessons from Ukraine and the Middle East into its fight against Boko Haram, ISWAP, bandits and emerging threats.
The Key Issues, In Full Quotations:
1. The Central Thesis
“From Ukraine to the Middle East: How Global Wars Must Reshape Nigeria’s Security Strategy”
2. Why Distant Wars Matter To Nigeria
“The nature of wars has changed. The two recent wars, Ukraine vs. Russia, and the three-way war between Iran, the United States, and Israel, have reshaped the strategy of modern warfare. From the World Wars to the Gulf Wars, nations that carefully studied distant conflicts often emerged stronger, while those that ignored recent battlefield realities paid dearly when war eventually reached their borders. Today, the two ongoing conflicts, the Russia-Ukraine War and the confrontation involving Iran, Israel, and the United States, offer Nigeria invaluable lessons. These wars are exposing the future of warfare in real time, and Nigeria’s military doctrine must evolve accordingly if it hopes to confront emerging security threats effectively.”
3. The Lesson On Spending vs Strategy
“The two wars demonstrated that investment in expensive war machines cannot necessarily guarantee victory. Instead, modern warfare requires investment in modern, adaptable technologies that don’t have to be expensive.”
4. Nigeria’s Traditional Doctrine
“For decades, Nigeria’s military doctrine has largely been shaped by conventional military strategy and peacekeeping operations.”
5. The Current Security Reality
“In recent years, the focus of the military has been on counterinsurgency campaigns against armed non-state actors such as Boko Haram, the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), bandits, kidnappers, and separatist militants.”
THE FULL TEXT BY PROF ABIODUN RAUFU
FROM UKRAINE TO THE MIDDLE EAST: HOW GLOBAL WARS MUST RESHAPE NIGERIA’S SECURITY STRATEGY BY PROF ABIODUN RAUF
BY PROF ABIODUN RAUFU
GREATRIBUNETVMEWS –The nature of wars has changed. The two recent wars, Ukraine vs. Russia, and the three-way war between Iran, the United States, and Israel, have reshaped the strategy of modern warfare. From the World Wars to the Gulf Wars, nations that carefully studied distant conflicts often emerged stronger, while those that ignored recent battlefield realities paid dearly when war eventually reached their borders. Today, the two ongoing conflicts, the Russia-Ukraine War and the confrontation involving Iran, Israel, and the United States, offer Nigeria invaluable lessons. These wars are exposing the future of warfare in real time, and Nigeria’s military doctrine must evolve accordingly if it hopes to confront emerging security threats effectively.
The two wars demonstrated that investment in expensive war machines cannot necessarily guarantee victory. Instead, modern warfare requires investment in modern, adaptable technologies that don’t have to be expensive.
For decades, Nigeria’s military doctrine has largely been shaped by conventional military strategy and peacekeeping operations.
In recent years, the focus of the military has been on counterinsurgency campaigns against armed non-state actors such as Boko Haram, the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), bandits, kidnappers, and separatist militants.
While these threats remain significant and must be dealt with asymmetrically, the time has come for the Nigerian military to emerge from redundant post-World War 11 doctrine and transform into a 21st-century war machine capable of dealing with both internal and potential external threats.
Recent global conflicts demonstrate that tomorrow’s battlefield will be defined less by armoured tanks and infantry alone and more by drones, artificial intelligence, cyber operations, electronic warfare, precision-guided munitions, satellite intelligence, and information warfare. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has become the clearest illustration of this transformation. Analysts increasingly identify autonomous systems, electronic warfare, resilient logistics, information operations, and integrated air defense as defining features of modern combat.
The most drastic transformation of the contemporary battlefield is arguably the revolution in drone warfare, which demonstrated how inexpensive unmanned aerial vehicles can destroy multimillion-dollar tanks, warships, ammunition depots, and command centers. Both Russia and Ukraine now rely heavily on first-person-view drones, loitering munitions, and autonomous systems to conduct surveillance and precision attacks. The battlefield has become a contest of innovation rather than merely one of manpower or expensive hardware. Countries across Europe and elsewhere are revising procurement priorities toward mass-produced drones, electronic warfare capabilities, and rapid innovation cycles.
Nigeria cannot afford to remain dependent on imported military technology while insurgent groups increasingly exploit commercial drones for reconnaissance and attacks. The Nigerian military should establish dedicated drone commands within each service, expand indigenous drone manufacturing through partnerships with universities and private technology firms, and invest heavily in counter-drone technologies capable of detecting, jamming, and neutralizing hostile unmanned aircraft.
Equally important is the growing importance of electronic warfare. In Ukraine, the side that dominates the electromagnetic spectrum often enjoys decisive battlefield advantages. GPS jamming, communications interception, cyberattacks, satellite disruption, and electromagnetic deception have become routine features of military operations. Modern warfare is increasingly fought not only on land, sea, and air but also across invisible digital and electromagnetic domains.
Nigeria’s security architecture remains insufficiently prepared for such threats. While the country has made commendable progress in cybersecurity, military doctrine must treat cyber defense and offensive cyber capabilities as core combat functions rather than technical support services. Military communications, national infrastructure, financial systems, and energy networks are all potential wartime targets. Future adversaries may attempt to paralyze Nigeria without firing a single conventional shot.
The Iran-Israel-United States confrontation provides another equally important lesson: air superiority no longer depends solely on advanced fighter aircraft. Relatively cheaper and more effective options lie in long-range missiles, cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, drones, layered missile defenses, and integrated intelligence networks now shape strategic outcomes. Nations capable of detecting, intercepting, and responding rapidly to missile attacks enjoy enormous strategic advantages.
Nigeria currently faces no immediate threat of interstate missile warfare. However, doctrine is not written merely for today’s enemies but for tomorrow’s uncertainties. The country’s strategic infrastructure, including oil installations, airports, naval bases, hydroelectric dams, communication facilities, and government institutions, deserves stronger integrated air-defense planning. Future investments should prioritize surveillance radars, integrated command-and-control systems, and modern air-defense capabilities alongside conventional military modernization.
Perhaps the greatest lesson from Ukraine is that logistics wins wars. Russia’s early setbacks illustrated that military strength means little without reliable supply chains, secure transportation corridors, fuel, ammunition, spare parts, and maintenance capacity. Ukraine, despite possessing fewer conventional resources, has demonstrated remarkable resilience through decentralized logistics, rapid innovation, and sustained international partnerships. Modern military planning increasingly recognizes logistics as a decisive combat capability rather than a rear-area support function.
Nigeria’s counterinsurgency campaigns have occasionally exposed weaknesses in logistics, equipment maintenance, procurement efficiency, force mobility, and intelligence failure. A revised military doctrine should prioritize domestic defense manufacturing, strategic stockpiles, resilient supply chains, and stronger civil-military industrial cooperation.
Another lesson that deserves serious attention is the battle for information. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has demonstrated that wars are increasingly fought on smartphones, social media platforms, satellite television, and cyberspace. Public opinion, international diplomacy, psychological operations, and strategic communication now influence military outcomes almost as much as battlefield victories. Disinformation campaigns, deepfakes, cyber propaganda, and coordinated influence operations have become powerful weapons.
Nigeria has experienced how misinformation can inflame communal violence, undermine military operations, and erode public confidence. Military doctrine must therefore incorporate strategic communication, digital intelligence, and counter-disinformation capabilities into operational planning.
Equally significant is the need to strengthen Nigeria’s domestic defense industry. One lesson emerging from both Ukraine and recent Middle Eastern conflicts is that countries cannot depend entirely on foreign suppliers during prolonged crises. Supply chains become disrupted, export restrictions emerge, and geopolitical interests often override commercial agreements. Nations that possess indigenous manufacturing capabilities recover faster and sustain military operations longer. This is what greatly helped Iran to combat the might of the United States military and the sophistication of Israeli weapon systems despite years of economic isolation.
Nigeria should therefore accelerate investments in indigenous production of drones, ammunition, armored vehicles, communication systems, surveillance technologies, and precision-guided weapons. The Defence Industries Corporation of Nigeria must evolve into a globally competitive defense manufacturer supported by private-sector innovation and university research.
Finally, these conflicts reinforce an uncomfortable truth: military doctrine must become a living document rather than an occasional policy publication. Technology now evolves faster than traditional procurement cycles. Artificial intelligence, autonomous weapons, quantum technologies, robotics, space-based surveillance, and cyber capabilities are transforming warfare at an unprecedented speed. Countries that fail to adapt continuously risk preparing for yesterday’s wars instead of tomorrow’s conflicts.
Nigeria’s security environment remains dominated by internal threats, but global military developments should not be dismissed as distant geopolitical contests. History repeatedly demonstrates that military innovations developed abroad eventually reshape conflicts everywhere. The next war Nigeria faces may look very different from those it has fought over the past two decades.
The Nigerian military has demonstrated courage, resilience, and professionalism under extremely difficult conditions in the past. Yet courage alone cannot substitute for technological superiority, doctrinal innovation, and strategic foresight. The battlefields of Ukraine and the Middle East are sending unmistakable signals about the future of warfare. You cannot wish for peace without preparing for war. The good thing is that the adaptation required does not have to increase the military budget. It, however, requires thinking out of the box, being technologically savvy, and making smart choices.
Nigerian government would be wise to listen before the lessons become necessities.
Professor Raufu, former Editor of Nigerian Tribune and ex-Managing Director and Editor-in-Chief of National Mirror Newspapers, is an Associate Professor of Criminal Justice at Southern University and A&M College, Baton Rouge, Louisiana in the United States of America.
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